New predictions, from July 22nd.

BEST PICTURE

Australia. - Oscar loved Baz for 01's Moulin Rouge!...perhaps dreamy glamor will pull through again.
Burn After Reading. - After No Country's BP win last year, it's evident that Oscar is on a Coen Bros. high. With a surprising lack of comedic BP competitors, this could easily make its way in.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. - Fincher hasn't been appreciated lately, but the story combined with powerhouse names like Pitt and Blanchett along with the stunning visuals (did you see the trailer?) makes this the one to keep an eye on come winter.
Doubt. - The Tonys loved the play, and with two previous Oscar winners headlining and the play's original director/writer still doing his thing, this could do just as good at the Oscars.
Frost/Nixon. - Another Tony winner with returning members - this time, Langella and Sheen both return to the roles they played on Broadway. With an Oscar winner directing, could this one pull through?


BEST DIRECTOR

Burn After Reading; Ethan & Joel Coen - Last year's winner(s) could very well make it here again if the film does well.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; David Fincher - This well known name has never been nominated, but if he ever stood a chance at getting nominated, now would certainly be the time.
Doubt; John Patrick Shanley - If the film is as good as it's supposed to be, he could easily get in.
Frost/Nixon; Ron Howard - The previous winner could return after a long absence from the nomination ballot.
Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Woody Allen - He hasn't been nominated for Best Director since 1994, and Cannes certainly made a big deal out of this picture...perhaps he could fill in the famous "5th spot."


BEST ACTOR

Che; Benicio del Toro - His film didn't get very good reviews at Cannes, but the previous Oscar winner certainly got good praise.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Brad Pitt - He's only been nominated once before, and if his film does well he might land a spot.
Frost/Nixon; Frank Langella - Veteran actor, never been nominated, and he won the Tony for this exact role. Sounds good to me!
Milk; Sean Penn - Seanny boy has made nary a splash since his win in '03... perhaps playing a gay political figure in van Sant's next film could garner him another nom?
W.; Josh Brolin - With a surprising lack of comedic nominees, Brolin could get his first nomination if the film is well recieved and he lives up to its name.


BEST ACTRESS

Australia; Nicole Kidman - After a series of flops and a brief, albeit unnoticed revival with last year's Margot at the Wedding, Kidman could fly back into Oscar's grasp once again.
Doubt; Meryl Streep - Cherry Jones was a shoo-in to win the Tony for this role, and now Hollywood's most respected actress is playing the same part. It's questionable on whether or not the film will do well, but it's almost assured that Meryl won't fail.
Grey Gardens; Drew Barrymore - A dark horse, but a very likely-looking bet considering Barrymore's lack of any previous nomination and gigantic potential.
Happy-Go-Lucky; Sally Hawkins - This Brit has already recieved positive buzz from England. Will Oscar go gaga for her like they did for Cotillard? Or will they recieve the film the same way?
Revolutionary Road; Kate Winslet - Poor Kate is still struggling to find the right role to nab that Oscar prize. Hopefully her risks will be fruitful soon.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Dark Knight; Heath Ledger - A posthumous nomination in a blockbuster superhero movie? As unusual as it sounds, the movie world is a-fire with potential buzz for Ledger's creepy Joker. If the category remains uneventful for the rest of the year, Ledger could easily swoop in...and possibly win?
Defiance; Liev Schreiber - The film looks promising, and Schreiber has gone unnoticed for a long time. Perhaps this time he will be.
Doubt; Philip Seymour Hoffman - If he's pushed supporting, the previous winner could land a spot easily.
Frost/Nixon; Michael Sheen - He garned attention in 06 for The Queen, and now he's back in a role he's already famous for. Potential nom? Perhaps.
The Soloist; Robert Downey, Jr. - He's on FIRE with Iron Man and could do just as well with Wright's film in the fall.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Burn After Reading; Frances McDormand - Oscar loves Coens, and they loved her back in 96 when they gave her the win for Fargo. If the film does well, she could easily get a nom.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Taraji P. Henson - Most known for her role in 05's Hustle & Flow, Henson could catch Oscar's eye with what is said to be a baity part.
Doubt; Amy Adams - A previous nominee in 05, Adams could ride her way in with the Doubt train to a spot.
Doubt; Viola Davis - Her role is said to be brief, but the actress who played her on Broadway beat out four other actresses at the Tonys - including the woman who is being portrayed by Adams in the film. Could this actress make a name for herself with the same part?
Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Penelope Cruz - Already getting buzz from Cannes, the previous nominee could sneak in with another nom.

81st Oscars: My First Big 8 Predictions.

Here we go again...hopefully these will be good for a laugh this time next year.

BEST PICTURE
Australia.
Changeling.
**Doubt.**
Revolutionary Road.
Synecdoche, New York.

BEST DIRECTOR
Charlie Kaufman - Synecdoche, New York.
Baz Luhrmann - Australia.
Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road.
Gus Van Sant - Milk.
**John Patrick Shanley - Doubt.**

BEST ACTOR
Benicio del Toro - Guerrila.
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road.
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Synecdoche, New York.
**Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon.**
Sean Penn - Milk.

BEST ACTRESS
Emily Blunt - Sunshine Cleaning.
Angelina Jolie - Changeling.
Nicole Kidman - Australia.
**Meryl Streep - Doubt.**
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Gael García Bernal - Blindness.
**Josh Brolin - Milk.**
Jason Butler Harner - Changeling.
Peter Macdissi - Towelhead.
Michael Sheen - Frost/Nixon.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
**Amy Adams - Doubt.**
Toni Collette - Towelhead.
Viola Davis - Doubt.
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
Samantha Morton - Synecdoche, New York.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Ethan & Joel Coen - Burn After Reading.
Ronald Harwood - Australia.
Megan Holley - Sunshine Cleaning.
**Charlie Kaufman - Synecdoche, New York.**
Andrew Stanton - WALL*E.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
**Alan Ball - Towelhead.**
Justin Haythe - Revolutionary Road.
Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon.
Eric Roth - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
John Patrick Shanley - Doubt.

My Final Predictions.

[Click on the image for a fuller resolution.]

Best Visual Effects

- Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End.
- 300.
- Transformers.

Best Makeup

- Hairspray.
- La Môme. [La Vie en Rose]
- Sweeney Todd.

Best Original Song

- Enchanted, That's How You Know.
- Grace is Gone, Grace is Gone.
- Hairspray, Come So Far (Got so Far to Go).
- Into the Wild, Guaranteed.
- Once, Falling Slowly.

Best Sound Editing

- Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End.
- Ratatouille.
- Spider-Man 3.
- 300.
- Transformers.

Best Sound Mixing

- The Bourne Ultimatum.
- No Country for Old Men.
- Sweeney Todd.
- 300.
- Transformers.

Best Original Score

- Michael Giacchino, Ratatouille.
- Jonny Greenwood, There Will Be Blood.
- Alberto Iglesias, The Kite Runner.
- Dario Marianelli, Atonement.
- Howard Shore, Eastern Promises.

Best Costumes

- Colleen Atwood, Sweeney Todd.
- Alexandra Byrne, Elizabeth: the Golden Age.
- Jacqueline Durran, Atonement.
- Patricia Norris, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
- Rita Ryack, Hairspray.

Best Art Direction.

- Stuart Craig, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.
- Michel Eric & Laurent Ott, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
- Dante Ferretti, Sweeney Todd.
- Jack Fisk, There Will Be Blood.
- Sarah Greenwood, Atonement.

Best Film Editing

- Jay Cassidy, Into the Wild.
- John Gilroy, Michael Clayton.
- "Roderick Jaynes" (Ethan & Joel Coen), No Country for Old Men.
- Chris Lebenzon, Sweeney Todd.
- Dylan Tichenor, There Will Be Blood.

Best Cinematography

- Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
- Roger Deakins, No Country for Old Men.
- Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood.
- Janusz Kaminski, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
- Seamus McGarvey, Atonement.

Best Documentary Film

- Autism: the Musical.
- For the Bible Tells Me So.
- Lake of Fire.
- No End in Sight.
- Sicko.

Best Animated Film

- Persepolis.
- Ratatouille.
- The Simpsons Movie.

Best Foreign Language Film.

- Die Fälscher [The Counterfeiters], Austria.
- L'Âge des ténèbres [Days of Darkness], Canada.
- 12, Russia.
- La Sconosciuta [The Unknown Woman], Italy.
- O Ano em Que Meus Pais Saíram de Férias [The Year My Parents Went on Vacation], Brazil.

Best Adapted Screenplay

- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood.
- Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men.
- Christopher Hampton, Atonement.
- Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
- Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson's War.

Best Original Screenplay

- Brad Bird, Ratatouille.
- Diablo Cody, Juno.
- Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton.
- Tamara Jenkins, The Savages.
- Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl.

Best Supporting Actor

- Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
- Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men.
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War.
- Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild.
- Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton.

Best Supporting Actress

- Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There.
- Catherine Keener, Into the Wild.
- Saoirse Ronan, Atonement.
- Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone.
- Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton.

Best Actor

- George Clooney, Michael Clayton.
- Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood.
- Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd.
- Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl.
- Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises.

Best Actress

- Amy Adams, Enchanted.
- Julie Christie, Away from Her.
- Marion Cotillard, La Môme [La Vie en Rose].
- Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart.
- Ellen Page, Juno.

Best Director

- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood.
- Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd.
- Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men.
- Sean Penn, Into the Wild.
- Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Best Picture

- Atonement.
- Into the Wild.
- Juno.
- No Country for Old Men.
- There Will Be Blood.

The race is heating up.

New Predicted Acting Nominees-

Note: There has been some gray matter in between the ones on the blog and these new ones, but these are the first big "new" predictions I've had since then.


Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis. There Will Be Blood
Why: His precursor wins and GG/BFCA/SAG noms plus rave reviews for the film as a whole have kept Day-Lewis propelled above the others.

Johnny Depp. Sweeney Todd
Why: Great reviews and the BFCA/Globe nod are making him a serious contender.

George Clooney. Michael Clayton
Why: Some precursor wins plus noms in the BFCA/GG/SAG are doing good for him. (Not to mention Wilkinson and Swinton.)

James McAvoy. Atonement
Why: Although he hasn't won any precursors, and didn't recieve a BFCA/SAG nom, he could still ride in through a strong campaign, his Globe nom, and the movie's overall success.

Emilie Hirsch. Into the Wild
Why: Sort of the flip side of McAvoy: almost no precursors and no Globe nom, but still doing good with his SAG and BFCA noms. He might have the "Indie cred" that Gosling had last year, too.

Don't forget...
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson's War)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)
Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl)
Frank Langella (Starting Out in the Evening)



Best Actress

Julie Christie. Away from Her
Why: Many precursor wins and nominations in "the 3" (BFCA/GG/SAG). Not to mention her vet status.

Marion Cotillard. La Vie en Rose
Why: Just as many precursor wins, and nominations in "the 3." The fact that she's foreign might hurt her, but she still stands a great chance.

Ellen Page. Juno
Why: Fantastic reviews and also noms from "the 3." She's definitely the "Indie" nominee of the year, and likely to be one of Hollywood's new starlets.

Amy Adams. Enchanted
Why: Although she missed out on SAG, Adams will definitely get pushed and has the fans on her side. Another starlet in the making.

Keira Knightley. Atonement
Why: In a category where she could've easily fallen out, it seems she could make it back in this year. True, she's only got the GG nom, but she's got star cred and could make it in the end....plus I don't want to admit Jolie could get nominated.

Don't forget...
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeney Todd)
Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Nicole Kidman (Margot at the Wedding)


Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem. No Country for Old Men
Why: Raves, precursor wins, and noms from "the 3." What more do you need?

Casey Affleck. The Assassination of Long Titles
Why: Some precursor wins and noms from "the 3." His appearance in Gone Baby Gone could earn him some extra support.

Philip Seymour Hoffman. Charlie Wilson's War
Why: Missed out on SAG, but his previous winning status + his plethora of film appearances this year will guarantee him a nomination somewhere - namely, here.

Hal Holbrook. Into the Wild
Why: Never nominated, got noms from BFCA and SAG, and has great reviews and the age factor working for him.

Tom Wilkinson. Michael Clayton
Why: A few precursors plus a nomination from every human on the planet...not to mention he's never won before.

Don't forget...
Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
John Travolta (Hairspray)
Russell Crowe (American Gangster)
Philip Bosco (The Savages)
Max von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)


Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett. I'm Not There
Why: Raves, a few precursor wins, "the 3," and her star status will keep her in.

Amy Ryan. Gone Baby Gone
Why: Winning probably the most precursors of the season not to mention nods from "the 3."

Saoirse Ronan. Atonement
Why: Oscar loves the kiddies when they shine in supporting. And SOMEONE from Atonement has to get nominated. Ronan's been winning lots of "Best Female Youth" awards from precursors and also has a Globe nom and BFCA nod.

Tilda Swinton. Michael Clayton
Why: Fairly known, but never nominated; riding the train of MC's glory, she'll score a nom easily after securing one in "the 3."

Vanessa Redgrave. Atonement
Why: S. Actress is really weak this year, and the open spot could easily go to her: she got very positive reviews and a BFCA award to boot.

Don't forget...
Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilson's War)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding)
Jennifer Garner (Juno)
Romola Garai (Atonement)
Catherine Keener (Into the Wild)



That's all for now...but keep checking back for updates!

SAG Nominees.

Dear Briony:

We're very, very, sorry for the terrible distress we, the SAG members, have caused..for such films as "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street", "Charlie Wilson's War", and your own, "Atonement." It's rather unfortunate that screeners weren't sent out to us, so the nominations are not as strong as they have been before. (We had to nominate Cate Blanchett instead of Keira Knightley. I am so, so, terribly sorry.)

I hope this won't ruin your chances at Oscar glory, but what more can you do?

Oh, and Cunt.

-SAG.





The Nominees

Best Ensemble

3:10 to Yuma
American Gangster
Hairspray
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men.


Best Actor, Leading

George Clooney. (Michael Clayton)
Daniel Day-Lewis. (There Will Be Blood)
Ryan Gosling. (Lars and the Real Girl)
Emile Hirsch. (Into the Wild)
Viggo Mortensen. (Eastern Promises)


Best Actress, Leading

Cate Blanchett. (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Julie Christie. (Away from Her)
Marion Cotillard. (La Vie en Rose)
Angelina Jolie. (A Mighty Heart)
Ellen Page. (Juno)


Best Actor, Supporting

Casey Affleck. (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
Javier Bardem. (No Country for Old Men)
Hal Holbrook. (Into the Wild)
Tommy Lee Jones. (No Country for Old Men)
Tom Wilkinson. (Michael Clayton)


Best Actress, Supporting

Cate Blanchett. (I'm Not There)
Ruby Dee. (American Gangster)
Catherine Keener. (Into the Wild)
Amy Ryan. (Gone Baby Gone)
Tilda Swinton. (Michael Clayton)

Best Supporting Actor predictions - 11/17/07

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1. JAVIER BARDEM - No Country for Old Men
Nominated: once for "Before Nights Falls"
Why he could: Amazing reviews, great role, noticable film...easily a shoo-in.
Why he couldn't: I honestly can't think of him not getting nominated. He is supposed to shine in the film, and don't see how he couldn't. The first sure-fire lock of the year!

2. PHILIP BOSCO - The Savages
Nominated: never
Why he could: Baity role, older actor with no noms...you do the math.
Why he couldn't: Could go unnoticed, or be overshadowed by leads Hoffman and Linney.

3. PAUL DANO - There Will Be Blood
Nominated: never
Why he could: After being noted in Little Miss Sunshine, Dano's bigger role looks baity and exactly like the type of newcomer performance Oscar loves.
Why he couldn't: TWBB might be too unconvential for Oscars, and Dano's performance might fall under the same category.

4. CASEY AFFLECK - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Nominated: never
Why he could: Very positive reviews for the film and his performance, not to mention its Volpi Cup win.
Why he couldn't: Could easily be overshadowed by a more "vet" actor. (See #6 and #7)

5. ALBERT FINNEY - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Nominated: five times, never won
Why he could: Vet actor + notablely good film + no wins yet = something's cookin.
Why he couldn't: Hawke's supporting performance or another one altogether could get thrown in the pot.

*_*_*_*_*_*

6. PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: once, and won for it. (Capote)
Why he couldn't: If the film doesn't do too well, his chances are gone.
Why he could: Still fresh in Oscar's mind, his performance might be thrown in - and they might want to award him for something if he misses out on The Savages.

7. TOM WILKINSON - Michael Clayton
Nominated: once for "In the Bedroom"
Why he couldn't: The film's lukewarm response might get him unnoticed on the radar.
Why he could: In the same position as co-star Clooney: if some other contenders fall flat, he could easily swoop in.

8. HAL HOLBROOK - Into the Wild
Nominated: never
Why he couldn't: A small part that is overshadowed by Hirsch's buzz.
Why he could: He's in the position where he is old enough to get in just by age - and he's pretty famous for his Mark Twain shows, so wouldn't it be great if he could add an Oscar nom to his resume?

9. JOHN TRAVOLTA - Hairspray
Nominated: twice for Saturday Night Fever and Pulp Fiction.
Why he couldn't: A role that suffers from category placement confusion and might get overlooked for more dramatic roles.
Why he could: He got really good reviews and was definitely put in a light he's never been seen in before. If Oscar is desperate for comedic relief, he could get in.

10. RUSSELL CROWE - American Gangster
Nominated: thrice, and won for "Gladiator."
Why he couldn't: The film's reception is still befuddling, and since he's second-wing to
Washington, his chances are down.
Why he could: He could always pull out a parasitic nomination since he hasn't gotten one now for 6 years.

Best Actor predictions - 11/11/07

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1. DANIEL DAY-LEWIS - There Will Be Blood
Nominated: thrice, won in '89 for "My Left Foot"
Why he could: Great reviews and fantastic buzz for an Oscar fav.
Why he couldn't: It's always possible he could be snubbed...although Oscar likes DDL, they might not like PTA.

2. JAMES McAVOY - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why he could: Once again, great reviews and buzz. Plus, he's supposed to be the standout.
Why he couldn't: His fairly unknown status might work against him.

3. DENZEL WASHINGTON - American Gangster
Nominated: five times, won twice for "Glory" and "Training Day"
Why he could: The standout of the film, and great reviews.
Why he couldn't: The film's response wasn't as widely accepted as originally thought, and he could be overlooked.

4. EMILIE HIRSCH - Into the Wild
Nominated: never
Why he could: Very positive reviews for the film and his performance.
Why he couldn't: He may get overlooked or replaced by a bigger name/movie.

5. JOHNNY DEPP - Sweeney Todd
Nominated: twice, never won
Why he could: Early buzz for a clearly baity and previously known (and praised) role.
Why he couldn't: Definitely could be too bizzare for Oscar's taste.

*_*_*_*_*_*

6. PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - The Savages
Nominated: once, and won for it. (Capote)
Why he couldn't: Could be overlooked by costars Linney and Bosco.
Why he could: Still fresh in Oscar's mind, his performance might be thrown in for comedic relief.

7. GEORGE CLOONEY - Michael Clayton
Nominated: thrice, but once for acting. He won the award for "Syriana."
Why he couldn't: Reviews and buzz not outstanding enough to push him all the way.
Why he could: If some other contenders fall flat, he could easily swoop in.

8. VIGGO MORTENSON - Eastern Promises
Nominated: never
Why he couldn't: Early release date and a film that is probably not for Oscar. (They did, after all, overlook AHOV.)
Why he could: The reviews have been overwhelmingly good, and he could get in with a campaign push.

9. TOMMY LEE JONES - No Country for Old Men
Nominated: twice, won for "The Fugitive"
Why he couldn't: Not enough buzz, and easily overshadowed by costar Bardem.
Why he could: If the category becomes pitiful, his vet. status may help him along with the "parasitic move." (Film with an easy shot at one category gets another nomination in a category you might not expect...See Djimon Hounsou for Blood Diamond, Frances McDormand for North Country, etc.)

10. TOM HANKS - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: 5 times, won twice for "Philadelphia" and "Forrest Gump."
Why he couldn't: His recent box office slump might bite him in the butt, along with how uncertain the film's future seems.
Why he could: If he pulls out a really good performance, a proper campaign and his vet status could get him in.

Best Supporting Actress predictions - 10/29/07

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1. CATE BLANCHETT - I'm Not There
Nominated: thrice, won one of them in '04 for "The Aviator"
Why she could: Really positive reviews and the Volpi Cup win are catapulting her to the front of a weak race.
Why she couldn't: The film might flop/get overlooked by the academy.

2. SAOIRSE RONAN - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why she could: Really good buzz for the film and herself
Why she couldn't: Age is always a factor, and she might not be ready to sit at the adult table yet.

3. JENNIFER JASON LEIGH - Margot at the Wedding
Nominated: never
Why she could: A clear standout of the film and a baity part.
Why she couldn't: The negative reception may get her unnoticed, even if she's good.

4. TILDA SWINTON - Michael Clayton
Nominated: never
Why she could: Solid reviews for the movie and her performance and baity enough to get in.
Why she couldn't: She may get overlooked or replaced by a bigger name.

5. AMY RYAN - Gone Baby Gone
Nominated: never
Why she could: Postive reviews and a definite baity role.
Why she couldn't: Like Swinton, she could get passed up for a bigger name, or her part may be too small to consider.

*_*_*_*_*_*

6. JULIA ROBERTS - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: thrice, won for "Erin Brockovich" in 2000.
Why she couldn't: Not-so-positive early reviews/comments of the film.
Why she could: A big enough name who's been out of the media's eye for a long time might just make it in.

7. MICHELLE PFEIFFER - Hairspray
Nominated: thrice, Dangerous Liaisons, The Fabulous Baker Boys, and Love Field. No wins.
Why she couldn't: Oscar doesn't tend to dig many musicals or comedies.
Why she could: A really stand-out part of the film, and she's way overdue for a nomination.

8. ROMOLA GARAI - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why she couldn't: Apparently overshadowed by leads McAvoy and Knightley and even co-supporting player Ronan.
Why she could: If other contenders fall out she could easily get nommed with Ronan ala Barraza and Kikuchi for Babel in '06.

9. SAMANTHA MORTON - Control
Nominated: twice, for "Sweet and Lowdown" and "In America"
Why she couldn't: A very unknown and mix-reviwed film.
Why she could: The role seems baity enough and the category is weak enough where she could get in with a campaign push.

10. NICOLE KIDMAN - His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass
Nominated: twice, and won for "The Hours"
Why she couldn't: A dark turn in a fantasy film may turn off some voters, and her recent film career hasn't been so hot.
Why she could: Once again, the race is weak this year, and she could easily ride in with the combination of her name and fairly good performance.

Best Actress predictions - 10/28/07

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1. LAURA LINNEY - The Savages
Nominated: twice before, "You Can Count on Me" and "Kinsey" (no wins)
Why she could: Oscar loves Indy dramedies and this may be her year.
Why she couldn't: She may be too quirky or too overshadowed by her male counterparts, PSH and Philip Bosco.

2. JULIE CHRISTIE - Away from Her
Nominated: thrice, won in the 60's for "Darling"
Why she could: Vet actress + Alzheimer's + weak year = nomination
Why she couldn't: The early release date may bite her in the butt.

3. MARION COTILLARD - La Vie en Rose
Nominated: never
Why she could: Stellar reviews and big fan support.
Why she couldn't: Early release date, foreign film, and pretty unknown. This year's dark horse.

4. ELLEN PAGE - Juno
Nominated: never.
Why she could: Good reviews for the film and her, and a large push by critics like Ebert.
Why she couldn't: Once again, could be too quirky (or too inexperienced) for Oscar's taste.

5. KEIRA KNIGHTLEY - Atonement
Nominated: once in '05 for "Pride and Prejudice"
Why she could: Extremely positive reviews for the movie, and a weak year for BA.
Why she couldn't: Not exactly raves over her performance and she's supposedly border-line supporting.

*_*_*_*_*_*

6. HELENA BONHAM CARTER - Sweeney Todd
Nominated: Once in '97 for "The Wings of the Dove"
Why she couldn't: Category placement. She would stand a much better chance in supporting, and the film might be too "dark."
Why she could: Showy part and right up her alley.

7. KERI RUSSELL - Waitress
Nominated: never
Why she couldn't: Overshadowed by other early contenders (Christie and Cotillard) and might not appeal to Oscar.
Why she could: Pretty solid reviews and a charming comedic turn that could go far with a push.

8. AMY ADAMS - Enchanted
Nominated: once in '05 for "Junebug"
Why she couldn't: Best Actress in a Disney Movie? No thanks.
Why she could: She might have that "something extra" that is always so absent in a Disney performance...plus a big push could help.

9. ANGELINA JOLIE - A Mighty Heart
Nominated: Nominated and won once, for "Girl, Interrupted"
Why she couldn't: Early release date, mediocre reviews, and bad B.O.
Why she could: A big push and a baity role might get her noticed.

10. UMA THURMAN - In Bloom
Nominated: Once for "Pulp Fiction"
Why she couldn't: Limited release date and almost no press.
Why she could: The role is baity enough and she hasn't had this much of a shot at a nom since '03/'04 with the "Kill Bill"s.