[click for bigger image]1. CATE BLANCHETT - I'm Not There
Nominated: thrice, won one of them in '04 for "The Aviator"
Why she could: Really positive reviews and the Volpi Cup win are catapulting her to the front of a weak race.
Why she couldn't: The film might flop/get overlooked by the academy.
2. SAOIRSE RONAN - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why she could: Really good buzz for the film and herself
Why she couldn't: Age is always a factor, and she might not be ready to sit at the adult table yet.
3. JENNIFER JASON LEIGH - Margot at the Wedding
Nominated: never
Why she could: A clear standout of the film and a baity part.
Why she couldn't: The negative reception may get her unnoticed, even if she's good.
4. TILDA SWINTON - Michael Clayton
Nominated: never
Why she could: Solid reviews for the movie and her performance and baity enough to get in.
Why she couldn't: She may get overlooked or replaced by a bigger name.
5. AMY RYAN - Gone Baby Gone
Nominated: never
Why she could: Postive reviews and a definite baity role.
Why she couldn't: Like Swinton, she could get passed up for a bigger name, or her part may be too small to consider.
*_*_*_*_*_*
6. JULIA ROBERTS - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: thrice, won for "Erin Brockovich" in 2000.
Why she couldn't: Not-so-positive early reviews/comments of the film.
Why she could: A big enough name who's been out of the media's eye for a long time might just make it in.
7. MICHELLE PFEIFFER - Hairspray
Nominated: thrice, Dangerous Liaisons, The Fabulous Baker Boys, and Love Field. No wins.
Why she couldn't: Oscar doesn't tend to dig many musicals or comedies.
Why she could: A really stand-out part of the film, and she's way overdue for a nomination.
8. ROMOLA GARAI - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why she couldn't: Apparently overshadowed by leads McAvoy and Knightley and even co-supporting player Ronan.
Why she could: If other contenders fall out she could easily get nommed with Ronan ala Barraza and Kikuchi for Babel in '06.
9. SAMANTHA MORTON - Control
Nominated: twice, for "Sweet and Lowdown" and "In America"
Why she couldn't: A very unknown and mix-reviwed film.
Why she could: The role seems baity enough and the category is weak enough where she could get in with a campaign push.
10. NICOLE KIDMAN - His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass
Nominated: twice, and won for "The Hours"
Why she couldn't: A dark turn in a fantasy film may turn off some voters, and her recent film career hasn't been so hot.
Why she could: Once again, the race is weak this year, and she could easily ride in with the combination of her name and fairly good performance.
Nominated: thrice, won one of them in '04 for "The Aviator"
Why she could: Really positive reviews and the Volpi Cup win are catapulting her to the front of a weak race.
Why she couldn't: The film might flop/get overlooked by the academy.
2. SAOIRSE RONAN - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why she could: Really good buzz for the film and herself
Why she couldn't: Age is always a factor, and she might not be ready to sit at the adult table yet.
3. JENNIFER JASON LEIGH - Margot at the Wedding
Nominated: never
Why she could: A clear standout of the film and a baity part.
Why she couldn't: The negative reception may get her unnoticed, even if she's good.
4. TILDA SWINTON - Michael Clayton
Nominated: never
Why she could: Solid reviews for the movie and her performance and baity enough to get in.
Why she couldn't: She may get overlooked or replaced by a bigger name.
5. AMY RYAN - Gone Baby Gone
Nominated: never
Why she could: Postive reviews and a definite baity role.
Why she couldn't: Like Swinton, she could get passed up for a bigger name, or her part may be too small to consider.
*_*_*_*_*_*
6. JULIA ROBERTS - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: thrice, won for "Erin Brockovich" in 2000.
Why she couldn't: Not-so-positive early reviews/comments of the film.
Why she could: A big enough name who's been out of the media's eye for a long time might just make it in.
7. MICHELLE PFEIFFER - Hairspray
Nominated: thrice, Dangerous Liaisons, The Fabulous Baker Boys, and Love Field. No wins.
Why she couldn't: Oscar doesn't tend to dig many musicals or comedies.
Why she could: A really stand-out part of the film, and she's way overdue for a nomination.
8. ROMOLA GARAI - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why she couldn't: Apparently overshadowed by leads McAvoy and Knightley and even co-supporting player Ronan.
Why she could: If other contenders fall out she could easily get nommed with Ronan ala Barraza and Kikuchi for Babel in '06.
9. SAMANTHA MORTON - Control
Nominated: twice, for "Sweet and Lowdown" and "In America"
Why she couldn't: A very unknown and mix-reviwed film.
Why she could: The role seems baity enough and the category is weak enough where she could get in with a campaign push.
10. NICOLE KIDMAN - His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass
Nominated: twice, and won for "The Hours"
Why she couldn't: A dark turn in a fantasy film may turn off some voters, and her recent film career hasn't been so hot.
Why she could: Once again, the race is weak this year, and she could easily ride in with the combination of her name and fairly good performance.
No comments:
Post a Comment