Best Actress predictions - 10/28/07

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1. LAURA LINNEY - The Savages
Nominated: twice before, "You Can Count on Me" and "Kinsey" (no wins)
Why she could: Oscar loves Indy dramedies and this may be her year.
Why she couldn't: She may be too quirky or too overshadowed by her male counterparts, PSH and Philip Bosco.

2. JULIE CHRISTIE - Away from Her
Nominated: thrice, won in the 60's for "Darling"
Why she could: Vet actress + Alzheimer's + weak year = nomination
Why she couldn't: The early release date may bite her in the butt.

3. MARION COTILLARD - La Vie en Rose
Nominated: never
Why she could: Stellar reviews and big fan support.
Why she couldn't: Early release date, foreign film, and pretty unknown. This year's dark horse.

4. ELLEN PAGE - Juno
Nominated: never.
Why she could: Good reviews for the film and her, and a large push by critics like Ebert.
Why she couldn't: Once again, could be too quirky (or too inexperienced) for Oscar's taste.

5. KEIRA KNIGHTLEY - Atonement
Nominated: once in '05 for "Pride and Prejudice"
Why she could: Extremely positive reviews for the movie, and a weak year for BA.
Why she couldn't: Not exactly raves over her performance and she's supposedly border-line supporting.

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6. HELENA BONHAM CARTER - Sweeney Todd
Nominated: Once in '97 for "The Wings of the Dove"
Why she couldn't: Category placement. She would stand a much better chance in supporting, and the film might be too "dark."
Why she could: Showy part and right up her alley.

7. KERI RUSSELL - Waitress
Nominated: never
Why she couldn't: Overshadowed by other early contenders (Christie and Cotillard) and might not appeal to Oscar.
Why she could: Pretty solid reviews and a charming comedic turn that could go far with a push.

8. AMY ADAMS - Enchanted
Nominated: once in '05 for "Junebug"
Why she couldn't: Best Actress in a Disney Movie? No thanks.
Why she could: She might have that "something extra" that is always so absent in a Disney performance...plus a big push could help.

9. ANGELINA JOLIE - A Mighty Heart
Nominated: Nominated and won once, for "Girl, Interrupted"
Why she couldn't: Early release date, mediocre reviews, and bad B.O.
Why she could: A big push and a baity role might get her noticed.

10. UMA THURMAN - In Bloom
Nominated: Once for "Pulp Fiction"
Why she couldn't: Limited release date and almost no press.
Why she could: The role is baity enough and she hasn't had this much of a shot at a nom since '03/'04 with the "Kill Bill"s.