[click for bigger image]1. JAVIER BARDEM - No Country for Old Men
Nominated: once for "Before Nights Falls"
Why he could: Amazing reviews, great role, noticable film...easily a shoo-in.
Why he couldn't: I honestly can't think of him not getting nominated. He is supposed to shine in the film, and don't see how he couldn't. The first sure-fire lock of the year!
2. PHILIP BOSCO - The Savages
Nominated: never
Why he could: Baity role, older actor with no noms...you do the math.
Why he couldn't: Could go unnoticed, or be overshadowed by leads Hoffman and Linney.
3. PAUL DANO - There Will Be Blood
Nominated: never
Why he could: After being noted in Little Miss Sunshine, Dano's bigger role looks baity and exactly like the type of newcomer performance Oscar loves.
Why he couldn't: TWBB might be too unconvential for Oscars, and Dano's performance might fall under the same category.
4. CASEY AFFLECK - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Nominated: never
Why he could: Very positive reviews for the film and his performance, not to mention its Volpi Cup win.
Why he couldn't: Could easily be overshadowed by a more "vet" actor. (See #6 and #7)
5. ALBERT FINNEY - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Nominated: five times, never won
Why he could: Vet actor + notablely good film + no wins yet = something's cookin.
Why he couldn't: Hawke's supporting performance or another one altogether could get thrown in the pot.
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6. PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: once, and won for it. (Capote)
Why he couldn't: If the film doesn't do too well, his chances are gone.
Why he could: Still fresh in Oscar's mind, his performance might be thrown in - and they might want to award him for something if he misses out on The Savages.
7. TOM WILKINSON - Michael Clayton
Nominated: once for "In the Bedroom"
Why he couldn't: The film's lukewarm response might get him unnoticed on the radar.
Why he could: In the same position as co-star Clooney: if some other contenders fall flat, he could easily swoop in.
8. HAL HOLBROOK - Into the Wild
Nominated: never
Why he couldn't: A small part that is overshadowed by Hirsch's buzz.
Why he could: He's in the position where he is old enough to get in just by age - and he's pretty famous for his Mark Twain shows, so wouldn't it be great if he could add an Oscar nom to his resume?
9. JOHN TRAVOLTA - Hairspray
Nominated: twice for Saturday Night Fever and Pulp Fiction.
Why he couldn't: A role that suffers from category placement confusion and might get overlooked for more dramatic roles.
Why he could: He got really good reviews and was definitely put in a light he's never been seen in before. If Oscar is desperate for comedic relief, he could get in.
10. RUSSELL CROWE - American Gangster
Nominated: thrice, and won for "Gladiator."
Why he couldn't: The film's reception is still befuddling, and since he's second-wing to
Washington, his chances are down.
Why he could: He could always pull out a parasitic nomination since he hasn't gotten one now for 6 years.
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