Best Supporting Actor predictions - 11/17/07

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1. JAVIER BARDEM - No Country for Old Men
Nominated: once for "Before Nights Falls"
Why he could: Amazing reviews, great role, noticable film...easily a shoo-in.
Why he couldn't: I honestly can't think of him not getting nominated. He is supposed to shine in the film, and don't see how he couldn't. The first sure-fire lock of the year!

2. PHILIP BOSCO - The Savages
Nominated: never
Why he could: Baity role, older actor with no noms...you do the math.
Why he couldn't: Could go unnoticed, or be overshadowed by leads Hoffman and Linney.

3. PAUL DANO - There Will Be Blood
Nominated: never
Why he could: After being noted in Little Miss Sunshine, Dano's bigger role looks baity and exactly like the type of newcomer performance Oscar loves.
Why he couldn't: TWBB might be too unconvential for Oscars, and Dano's performance might fall under the same category.

4. CASEY AFFLECK - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Nominated: never
Why he could: Very positive reviews for the film and his performance, not to mention its Volpi Cup win.
Why he couldn't: Could easily be overshadowed by a more "vet" actor. (See #6 and #7)

5. ALBERT FINNEY - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Nominated: five times, never won
Why he could: Vet actor + notablely good film + no wins yet = something's cookin.
Why he couldn't: Hawke's supporting performance or another one altogether could get thrown in the pot.

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6. PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: once, and won for it. (Capote)
Why he couldn't: If the film doesn't do too well, his chances are gone.
Why he could: Still fresh in Oscar's mind, his performance might be thrown in - and they might want to award him for something if he misses out on The Savages.

7. TOM WILKINSON - Michael Clayton
Nominated: once for "In the Bedroom"
Why he couldn't: The film's lukewarm response might get him unnoticed on the radar.
Why he could: In the same position as co-star Clooney: if some other contenders fall flat, he could easily swoop in.

8. HAL HOLBROOK - Into the Wild
Nominated: never
Why he couldn't: A small part that is overshadowed by Hirsch's buzz.
Why he could: He's in the position where he is old enough to get in just by age - and he's pretty famous for his Mark Twain shows, so wouldn't it be great if he could add an Oscar nom to his resume?

9. JOHN TRAVOLTA - Hairspray
Nominated: twice for Saturday Night Fever and Pulp Fiction.
Why he couldn't: A role that suffers from category placement confusion and might get overlooked for more dramatic roles.
Why he could: He got really good reviews and was definitely put in a light he's never been seen in before. If Oscar is desperate for comedic relief, he could get in.

10. RUSSELL CROWE - American Gangster
Nominated: thrice, and won for "Gladiator."
Why he couldn't: The film's reception is still befuddling, and since he's second-wing to
Washington, his chances are down.
Why he could: He could always pull out a parasitic nomination since he hasn't gotten one now for 6 years.

Best Actor predictions - 11/11/07

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1. DANIEL DAY-LEWIS - There Will Be Blood
Nominated: thrice, won in '89 for "My Left Foot"
Why he could: Great reviews and fantastic buzz for an Oscar fav.
Why he couldn't: It's always possible he could be snubbed...although Oscar likes DDL, they might not like PTA.

2. JAMES McAVOY - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why he could: Once again, great reviews and buzz. Plus, he's supposed to be the standout.
Why he couldn't: His fairly unknown status might work against him.

3. DENZEL WASHINGTON - American Gangster
Nominated: five times, won twice for "Glory" and "Training Day"
Why he could: The standout of the film, and great reviews.
Why he couldn't: The film's response wasn't as widely accepted as originally thought, and he could be overlooked.

4. EMILIE HIRSCH - Into the Wild
Nominated: never
Why he could: Very positive reviews for the film and his performance.
Why he couldn't: He may get overlooked or replaced by a bigger name/movie.

5. JOHNNY DEPP - Sweeney Todd
Nominated: twice, never won
Why he could: Early buzz for a clearly baity and previously known (and praised) role.
Why he couldn't: Definitely could be too bizzare for Oscar's taste.

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6. PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - The Savages
Nominated: once, and won for it. (Capote)
Why he couldn't: Could be overlooked by costars Linney and Bosco.
Why he could: Still fresh in Oscar's mind, his performance might be thrown in for comedic relief.

7. GEORGE CLOONEY - Michael Clayton
Nominated: thrice, but once for acting. He won the award for "Syriana."
Why he couldn't: Reviews and buzz not outstanding enough to push him all the way.
Why he could: If some other contenders fall flat, he could easily swoop in.

8. VIGGO MORTENSON - Eastern Promises
Nominated: never
Why he couldn't: Early release date and a film that is probably not for Oscar. (They did, after all, overlook AHOV.)
Why he could: The reviews have been overwhelmingly good, and he could get in with a campaign push.

9. TOMMY LEE JONES - No Country for Old Men
Nominated: twice, won for "The Fugitive"
Why he couldn't: Not enough buzz, and easily overshadowed by costar Bardem.
Why he could: If the category becomes pitiful, his vet. status may help him along with the "parasitic move." (Film with an easy shot at one category gets another nomination in a category you might not expect...See Djimon Hounsou for Blood Diamond, Frances McDormand for North Country, etc.)

10. TOM HANKS - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: 5 times, won twice for "Philadelphia" and "Forrest Gump."
Why he couldn't: His recent box office slump might bite him in the butt, along with how uncertain the film's future seems.
Why he could: If he pulls out a really good performance, a proper campaign and his vet status could get him in.

Best Supporting Actress predictions - 10/29/07

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1. CATE BLANCHETT - I'm Not There
Nominated: thrice, won one of them in '04 for "The Aviator"
Why she could: Really positive reviews and the Volpi Cup win are catapulting her to the front of a weak race.
Why she couldn't: The film might flop/get overlooked by the academy.

2. SAOIRSE RONAN - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why she could: Really good buzz for the film and herself
Why she couldn't: Age is always a factor, and she might not be ready to sit at the adult table yet.

3. JENNIFER JASON LEIGH - Margot at the Wedding
Nominated: never
Why she could: A clear standout of the film and a baity part.
Why she couldn't: The negative reception may get her unnoticed, even if she's good.

4. TILDA SWINTON - Michael Clayton
Nominated: never
Why she could: Solid reviews for the movie and her performance and baity enough to get in.
Why she couldn't: She may get overlooked or replaced by a bigger name.

5. AMY RYAN - Gone Baby Gone
Nominated: never
Why she could: Postive reviews and a definite baity role.
Why she couldn't: Like Swinton, she could get passed up for a bigger name, or her part may be too small to consider.

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6. JULIA ROBERTS - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: thrice, won for "Erin Brockovich" in 2000.
Why she couldn't: Not-so-positive early reviews/comments of the film.
Why she could: A big enough name who's been out of the media's eye for a long time might just make it in.

7. MICHELLE PFEIFFER - Hairspray
Nominated: thrice, Dangerous Liaisons, The Fabulous Baker Boys, and Love Field. No wins.
Why she couldn't: Oscar doesn't tend to dig many musicals or comedies.
Why she could: A really stand-out part of the film, and she's way overdue for a nomination.

8. ROMOLA GARAI - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why she couldn't: Apparently overshadowed by leads McAvoy and Knightley and even co-supporting player Ronan.
Why she could: If other contenders fall out she could easily get nommed with Ronan ala Barraza and Kikuchi for Babel in '06.

9. SAMANTHA MORTON - Control
Nominated: twice, for "Sweet and Lowdown" and "In America"
Why she couldn't: A very unknown and mix-reviwed film.
Why she could: The role seems baity enough and the category is weak enough where she could get in with a campaign push.

10. NICOLE KIDMAN - His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass
Nominated: twice, and won for "The Hours"
Why she couldn't: A dark turn in a fantasy film may turn off some voters, and her recent film career hasn't been so hot.
Why she could: Once again, the race is weak this year, and she could easily ride in with the combination of her name and fairly good performance.

Best Actress predictions - 10/28/07

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1. LAURA LINNEY - The Savages
Nominated: twice before, "You Can Count on Me" and "Kinsey" (no wins)
Why she could: Oscar loves Indy dramedies and this may be her year.
Why she couldn't: She may be too quirky or too overshadowed by her male counterparts, PSH and Philip Bosco.

2. JULIE CHRISTIE - Away from Her
Nominated: thrice, won in the 60's for "Darling"
Why she could: Vet actress + Alzheimer's + weak year = nomination
Why she couldn't: The early release date may bite her in the butt.

3. MARION COTILLARD - La Vie en Rose
Nominated: never
Why she could: Stellar reviews and big fan support.
Why she couldn't: Early release date, foreign film, and pretty unknown. This year's dark horse.

4. ELLEN PAGE - Juno
Nominated: never.
Why she could: Good reviews for the film and her, and a large push by critics like Ebert.
Why she couldn't: Once again, could be too quirky (or too inexperienced) for Oscar's taste.

5. KEIRA KNIGHTLEY - Atonement
Nominated: once in '05 for "Pride and Prejudice"
Why she could: Extremely positive reviews for the movie, and a weak year for BA.
Why she couldn't: Not exactly raves over her performance and she's supposedly border-line supporting.

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6. HELENA BONHAM CARTER - Sweeney Todd
Nominated: Once in '97 for "The Wings of the Dove"
Why she couldn't: Category placement. She would stand a much better chance in supporting, and the film might be too "dark."
Why she could: Showy part and right up her alley.

7. KERI RUSSELL - Waitress
Nominated: never
Why she couldn't: Overshadowed by other early contenders (Christie and Cotillard) and might not appeal to Oscar.
Why she could: Pretty solid reviews and a charming comedic turn that could go far with a push.

8. AMY ADAMS - Enchanted
Nominated: once in '05 for "Junebug"
Why she couldn't: Best Actress in a Disney Movie? No thanks.
Why she could: She might have that "something extra" that is always so absent in a Disney performance...plus a big push could help.

9. ANGELINA JOLIE - A Mighty Heart
Nominated: Nominated and won once, for "Girl, Interrupted"
Why she couldn't: Early release date, mediocre reviews, and bad B.O.
Why she could: A big push and a baity role might get her noticed.

10. UMA THURMAN - In Bloom
Nominated: Once for "Pulp Fiction"
Why she couldn't: Limited release date and almost no press.
Why she could: The role is baity enough and she hasn't had this much of a shot at a nom since '03/'04 with the "Kill Bill"s.