Best Supporting Actress predictions - 10/29/07

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1. CATE BLANCHETT - I'm Not There
Nominated: thrice, won one of them in '04 for "The Aviator"
Why she could: Really positive reviews and the Volpi Cup win are catapulting her to the front of a weak race.
Why she couldn't: The film might flop/get overlooked by the academy.

2. SAOIRSE RONAN - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why she could: Really good buzz for the film and herself
Why she couldn't: Age is always a factor, and she might not be ready to sit at the adult table yet.

3. JENNIFER JASON LEIGH - Margot at the Wedding
Nominated: never
Why she could: A clear standout of the film and a baity part.
Why she couldn't: The negative reception may get her unnoticed, even if she's good.

4. TILDA SWINTON - Michael Clayton
Nominated: never
Why she could: Solid reviews for the movie and her performance and baity enough to get in.
Why she couldn't: She may get overlooked or replaced by a bigger name.

5. AMY RYAN - Gone Baby Gone
Nominated: never
Why she could: Postive reviews and a definite baity role.
Why she couldn't: Like Swinton, she could get passed up for a bigger name, or her part may be too small to consider.

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6. JULIA ROBERTS - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: thrice, won for "Erin Brockovich" in 2000.
Why she couldn't: Not-so-positive early reviews/comments of the film.
Why she could: A big enough name who's been out of the media's eye for a long time might just make it in.

7. MICHELLE PFEIFFER - Hairspray
Nominated: thrice, Dangerous Liaisons, The Fabulous Baker Boys, and Love Field. No wins.
Why she couldn't: Oscar doesn't tend to dig many musicals or comedies.
Why she could: A really stand-out part of the film, and she's way overdue for a nomination.

8. ROMOLA GARAI - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why she couldn't: Apparently overshadowed by leads McAvoy and Knightley and even co-supporting player Ronan.
Why she could: If other contenders fall out she could easily get nommed with Ronan ala Barraza and Kikuchi for Babel in '06.

9. SAMANTHA MORTON - Control
Nominated: twice, for "Sweet and Lowdown" and "In America"
Why she couldn't: A very unknown and mix-reviwed film.
Why she could: The role seems baity enough and the category is weak enough where she could get in with a campaign push.

10. NICOLE KIDMAN - His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass
Nominated: twice, and won for "The Hours"
Why she couldn't: A dark turn in a fantasy film may turn off some voters, and her recent film career hasn't been so hot.
Why she could: Once again, the race is weak this year, and she could easily ride in with the combination of her name and fairly good performance.

Best Actress predictions - 10/28/07

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1. LAURA LINNEY - The Savages
Nominated: twice before, "You Can Count on Me" and "Kinsey" (no wins)
Why she could: Oscar loves Indy dramedies and this may be her year.
Why she couldn't: She may be too quirky or too overshadowed by her male counterparts, PSH and Philip Bosco.

2. JULIE CHRISTIE - Away from Her
Nominated: thrice, won in the 60's for "Darling"
Why she could: Vet actress + Alzheimer's + weak year = nomination
Why she couldn't: The early release date may bite her in the butt.

3. MARION COTILLARD - La Vie en Rose
Nominated: never
Why she could: Stellar reviews and big fan support.
Why she couldn't: Early release date, foreign film, and pretty unknown. This year's dark horse.

4. ELLEN PAGE - Juno
Nominated: never.
Why she could: Good reviews for the film and her, and a large push by critics like Ebert.
Why she couldn't: Once again, could be too quirky (or too inexperienced) for Oscar's taste.

5. KEIRA KNIGHTLEY - Atonement
Nominated: once in '05 for "Pride and Prejudice"
Why she could: Extremely positive reviews for the movie, and a weak year for BA.
Why she couldn't: Not exactly raves over her performance and she's supposedly border-line supporting.

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6. HELENA BONHAM CARTER - Sweeney Todd
Nominated: Once in '97 for "The Wings of the Dove"
Why she couldn't: Category placement. She would stand a much better chance in supporting, and the film might be too "dark."
Why she could: Showy part and right up her alley.

7. KERI RUSSELL - Waitress
Nominated: never
Why she couldn't: Overshadowed by other early contenders (Christie and Cotillard) and might not appeal to Oscar.
Why she could: Pretty solid reviews and a charming comedic turn that could go far with a push.

8. AMY ADAMS - Enchanted
Nominated: once in '05 for "Junebug"
Why she couldn't: Best Actress in a Disney Movie? No thanks.
Why she could: She might have that "something extra" that is always so absent in a Disney performance...plus a big push could help.

9. ANGELINA JOLIE - A Mighty Heart
Nominated: Nominated and won once, for "Girl, Interrupted"
Why she couldn't: Early release date, mediocre reviews, and bad B.O.
Why she could: A big push and a baity role might get her noticed.

10. UMA THURMAN - In Bloom
Nominated: Once for "Pulp Fiction"
Why she couldn't: Limited release date and almost no press.
Why she could: The role is baity enough and she hasn't had this much of a shot at a nom since '03/'04 with the "Kill Bill"s.