2009: Thoughts on Acting.

The Men

Major Contenders [[Leading]]::
Colin Firth in A Single Man.
George Clooney in Up in the Air.
Morgan Freeman in Invictus.
Hal Holbrook in That Evening Sun.
Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker.
Matt Damon in The Informant!.
Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine.

Major Contenders [[Supporting]]::
Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones.
Alfred Molina in An Education.
Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds.
Matt Damon in Invictus.

Longshots [[Leading]]::
Christopher Plummer in The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus.
Ben Whishaw in Bright Star.
Michael Stuhlberg in A Serious Man.
Willem Dafoe in Antichrist.
Viggo Mortensen in The Road.

Longshots [[Supporting]]::
Richard Kind and the men of A Serious Man.
Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker.
Paul Scheider in Bright Star.
Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Road.
Tobey Maguire in Brothers.
Matthew Goode in A Single Man.
The men of The Men Who Stare at Goats.
The men of The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus.
The men of Amelia.

The Dark Horses to watch for::
Joseph Gordon-Levitt in (500) Days of Summer.
Christian McKay in Me and Orson Welles.

Category Placement?::
James McAvoy and Christopher Plummer in The Last Station.
Mark Wahlberg in The Lovely Bones.
Peter Sarsgaard in An Education.


The Women

Major Contenders [[Leading]]::
Carey Mulligan in An Education.
Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia.
Hilary Swank in Amelia.
Gabourey Sidibe in Precious.

Major Contenders [[Supporting]]::
Mo'Nique in Precious.
Julianne Moore in A Single Man.
Penelope Cruz in Nine.

Longshots [[Leading]]::
Abbie Cornish in Bright Star.
Saoirse Ronan in The Lovely Bones.
Penelope Cruz in Broken Embraces.
Audrey Tautou in Coco Before Chanel.
Zooey Deschanel in (500) Days of Summer.
Michelle Pfeiffer in Cheri.
Amy Adams in Julie & Julia.

Longshots [[Supporting]]::
Rosamund Pike & Emma Thompson in An Education.
Susan Sarandon & Rachel Weisz in The Lovely Bones.
Nicole Kidman & Judi Dench in Nine.
Paula Patton & Mariah Carey in Precious.
Charlize Theron in The Road.
Melanie Laurent and Diane Kruger in Inglourious Basterds.

The Dark Horses to watch for::
Emily Blunt in The Young Victoria.
Carolyn Dando in The Lovely Bones.

Category Placement?::
Marion Cotillard in Nine.
Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air.

Yay.

Post-Globe Acting Rundown.

Best Actor in a Leading Role.

Looking Safe...are Sean Penn's turn as openly gay politician, the titular Harvey, in Gus Van Sant's Milk. Despite Penn's previous win (in 2003 for Mystic River), the amount of praise, critics awards and the ever-important Globe nomination have lead other critics to say that this could possibly be his best performance to date. But could this warrant him another Oscar? Also sitting pretty is acting veteran Frank Langella, reprising his Tony-award portrayal as Richard Nixon in the drama Frost/Nixon, and Mickey Rourke, whose career is not unlike his role in Darren Aronofsky's The Wrestler, where a down-and-out professional makes the effort to re-glorify his name.

On the Fence: There are four big contenders for the remaining two spots. They are, alphabetically: Leonardo DiCaprio as a struggling father in Revolutionary Road, Clint Eastwood as a cantankerous, yet courageous neighbor in his own Gran Torino, Richard Jenkins as a professor who fights for the rights of his illegal alien friends in the quiet The Visitor, and Brad Pitt, whose career could easily bounce back into awards territory with David Fincher's sweeping drama The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, about a man who ages backwards. So, who's in and who's out? At this point, any of these four men could easily be interchanged into a suitable looking lineup for 2008- but, at the moment, it looks like DiCaprio could score a nomination for his harrowing performance, and previously unnominated Jenkins could garner enough fan support over Pitt and Eastwood to take the last spot.

Longshots: Their outlook is not so good right now, but who knows what could happen? Josh Brolin for W., Benicio del Toro for Che, Hugh Jackman for Australia, Dustin Hoffman for Last Chance Harvey, and Will Smith for Seven Pounds.

Best Actress in a Leading Role.

Looking Safe...is really only one person for sure, and that is Mrs. 14 Nominations Herself, Meryl Streep for her role as Sister Aloysius in Doubt. Although she is the only lock, there are several other strong contenders that are so close to being in that they could be considered safe at this point, namely Kate Winslet for her role as an unsatisfied housewife in Revolutionary Road, Anne Hathaway as the kindling to her family's dysfunction in Rachel Getting Married, and Sally Hawkins as perky Poppy in the British comedy Happy-Go-Lucky.

On the Fence: With these four women sitting pretty tight, that leaves only one open space for three main competitors: Cate Blanchett as a lover tormented by time in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Angelina Jolie as a misunderstood mother of a missing child in Changeling, and Kristin Scott Thomas as an ex-convict in the French-language film I've Loved You So Long. All three of these women have previously been nominated before, and have their strengths and weaknesses. Blanchett is loved by the Academy, but her role may not be as easily showcased as her costar Pitt's part is. Jolie received lots of her praise for her work, but her recent commercial lifestyle may put off some voters, or maybe or role will be forgotten altogether because of its early October release. Thomas has been winning critical acclaim and is surely boosted by Marion Cotillard's win last year in a French-language film...but this may also end up hurting her, if voters are too unwilling to read subtitles and watch a movie at the same time. So, which lady could make her way in? The position has constantly been fluctuating throughout the year, but at the moment it looks like Button's success and Blanchett's star power could get her nomination number 6 this year.

Longshots: Just outside this band of seven, Melissa Leo has been quietly watching the action and sitting back. Scattered critical praise and an ISA nomination for her indie film Frozen River have put her on the map, for sure...but she's so unknown and the film made such a little splash, and such a long time ago, that she is easily the season's dark horse. Also worthy of noting: Kate Beckinsale for Nothing But the Truth, Nicole Kidman for Australia, Emma Thompson for Last Chance Harvey, and Michelle Williams for Wendy and Lucy.

Best Supporting Actor.

Looking Safe... are two men: the Joker himself, Heath Ledger, for his ground-breaking performance in the equally ground-breaking film The Dark Knight, and Philip Seymour Hoffman as the guilty(?) Father Flynn in Doubt. However, past these two men, there is some speculation as to who could get in.

On the Fence: Here we have a whopping six performances that are stirring around in the considerably weak Supporting Actor stew. They are, in alphabetical order: Josh Brolin as a guilty assassin in Milk, Robert Downey, Jr. in a deadpanned comedic role as an actor undergoing blackface for his next film in Tropic Thunder, and Ralph Fiennes, who actually has two roles that could win him acclaim: his Golden-Globe nominated performance in The Duchess, or his co-starring role as a man haunted by his past in the drama The Reader. We've also got James Franco as a politician's lover in the biopic Milk, Dev Patel as a young boy desperate to find his true love in Slumdog Millionaire, and Michael Shannon as the intuitive real estate agent with speculations in Revolutionary Road. Now, these seven performances could all easily be slotted into the remaining three spots, but which three will prevail above the others? Although he didn't receive a Golden Globe nomination, Brolin's work in Milk (controversial role, previously unnominated even after No Country for Old Men's success last year, and also riding on his performance for W. that will undoubtedly go unnoticed) makes him easily the most likely to get a nomination out of the bunch. Early reviews have also had positive buzz for Shannon's role, especially with his work in a reportedly pivotal scene. So, if these two men have spots, who else could get in? When it gets down to the nitty-gritty, I think Downey, Jr. and Patel will be duking it out for the last spot. And even though Downey, Jr. has had more of the precursor love, I think that the conservative Academy would rather reward a previously unknown and unnominated Indian boy in a BP darling than nominate a somewhat controversial comedic performance alongside Ledger's already unorthodox Joker- but, who knows? Maybe Downey could pull it off after all.

Longshots: Let's not forget some of the men with fading possibilities, but still possibilities nonetheless: Tom Cruise for Tropic Thunder (Golden Globe nominee), Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky, and Liev Schrieber for Defiance.

Best Supporting Actress.

Looking Safe... for now, we have two locks for sure: Penelope Cruz's turn as sexy Maria in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and Viola Davis as the heart-wrenching Mrs. Muller in the adaptation of the stage play Doubt. Also looking safe, although not quite a lock just yet, is Kate Winslet for her role as a disturbed Holocaust guard in Stephen Daldry's The Reader.

On the Fence: Four women seem to be eying those last two spots: Amy Adams as the quiet Sister James in Doubt, Rosemarie DeWitt as frustrated sister Rachel in Rachel Getting Married, Taraji P. Henson as caring "mother" Queenie in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Marisa Tomei as lonely stripper Cassidy in The Wrestler. Adams and Tomei can play the "previous nominee" card, even in the same category; yet I think the other two women have the fleshier roles that Oscar loves to nominate, along with costars who also stand a chance of being nominated. So, Henson and Dewitt look like they are in this spot for now.

Longshots: This race is still wide open, so keep an eye out for these potential dark horses: Hiam Abbass for The Visitor, Kathy Bates for Revolutionary Road, Vera Farmiga for Nothing But the Truth, Samantha Morton for Synecdoche, New York, Tilda Swinton for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Debra Winger for Rachel Getting Married, or Elsa Zylberstein for I've Loved You So Long.

Predicted Lineups (with Best Picture and Best Director)

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio- Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins- The Visitor
Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn- Milk
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins- Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep- Doubt
Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin- Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
Dev Patel- Slumdog Millionaire
Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz- Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis- Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt- Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet- The Reader

Best Director
Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes- Revolutionary Road
Christopher Nolan- The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant- Milk

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

November Acting Predictions. With Pictures!

Best Actor.
01.] Frank LANGELLA [Frost/Nixon]
02.] Sean PENN [Milk]
03.] Mickey ROURKE [The Wrestler]
04.] Brad PITT [The Curious Case of Benjamin Button]
05.] Leonardo DiCAPRIO [Revolutionary Road]
06.] Josh BROLIN [W.]
07.] Richard JENKINS [The Visitor]
08.] Benicio DEL TORO [Che]
09.] Hugh JACKMAN [Australia]
10.] Daniel CRAIG [Defiance]






Best Actress.
01.] Meryl STREEP [Doubt]
02.] Kristen Scott THOMAS [I've Loved You So Long]
03.] Anne HATHAWAY [Rachel Getting Married]
04.] Kate WINSLET [Revolutionary Road]
05.] Sally HAWKINS [Happy-Go-Lucky]
06.] Angelina JOLIE [Changeling]
07.] Cate BLANCHETT [The Curious Case of Benjamin Button]
08.] Nicole KIDMAN [Australia]
09.] Kate BECKINSALE [Nothing But the Truth]
10.] Michelle WILLIAMS [Wendy and Lucy]

Best Supporting Actor.
01.] Heath LEDGER [The Dark Knight]
02.] Philip Seymour HOFFMAN [Doubt]
03.] Josh BROLIN [Milk]
04.] Ralph FIENNES [The Reader]
05.] Liev SCHRIEBER [Defiance]
06.] James FRANCO [Milk]
07.] Robert DOWNEY, JR. [Tropic Thunder]
08.] Michael SHANNON [Revolutionary Road]
09.] Jason Butler HARNER [Changeling]
10.] Eddie MARSAN [Happy-Go-Lucky]

Best Supporting Actress.
01.] Kate WINSLET [The Reader]
02.] Viola DAVIS [Doubt]
03.] Taraji P. HENSON [The Curious Case of Benjamin Button]
04.] Penelope CRUZ [Vicky Cristina Barcelona]
05.] Amy ADAMS [Doubt]
06.] Marisa TOMEI [The Wrestler]
07.] Rosemarie DeWITT [Rachel Getting Married]
08.] Elsa ZYLBERSTEIN [I've Loved You So Long]
09.] Samantha MORTON [Synecdoche, New York]
10.] Vera FARMIGA [Nothing But the Truth]

New predictions, from July 22nd.

BEST PICTURE

Australia. - Oscar loved Baz for 01's Moulin Rouge!...perhaps dreamy glamor will pull through again.
Burn After Reading. - After No Country's BP win last year, it's evident that Oscar is on a Coen Bros. high. With a surprising lack of comedic BP competitors, this could easily make its way in.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. - Fincher hasn't been appreciated lately, but the story combined with powerhouse names like Pitt and Blanchett along with the stunning visuals (did you see the trailer?) makes this the one to keep an eye on come winter.
Doubt. - The Tonys loved the play, and with two previous Oscar winners headlining and the play's original director/writer still doing his thing, this could do just as good at the Oscars.
Frost/Nixon. - Another Tony winner with returning members - this time, Langella and Sheen both return to the roles they played on Broadway. With an Oscar winner directing, could this one pull through?


BEST DIRECTOR

Burn After Reading; Ethan & Joel Coen - Last year's winner(s) could very well make it here again if the film does well.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; David Fincher - This well known name has never been nominated, but if he ever stood a chance at getting nominated, now would certainly be the time.
Doubt; John Patrick Shanley - If the film is as good as it's supposed to be, he could easily get in.
Frost/Nixon; Ron Howard - The previous winner could return after a long absence from the nomination ballot.
Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Woody Allen - He hasn't been nominated for Best Director since 1994, and Cannes certainly made a big deal out of this picture...perhaps he could fill in the famous "5th spot."


BEST ACTOR

Che; Benicio del Toro - His film didn't get very good reviews at Cannes, but the previous Oscar winner certainly got good praise.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Brad Pitt - He's only been nominated once before, and if his film does well he might land a spot.
Frost/Nixon; Frank Langella - Veteran actor, never been nominated, and he won the Tony for this exact role. Sounds good to me!
Milk; Sean Penn - Seanny boy has made nary a splash since his win in '03... perhaps playing a gay political figure in van Sant's next film could garner him another nom?
W.; Josh Brolin - With a surprising lack of comedic nominees, Brolin could get his first nomination if the film is well recieved and he lives up to its name.


BEST ACTRESS

Australia; Nicole Kidman - After a series of flops and a brief, albeit unnoticed revival with last year's Margot at the Wedding, Kidman could fly back into Oscar's grasp once again.
Doubt; Meryl Streep - Cherry Jones was a shoo-in to win the Tony for this role, and now Hollywood's most respected actress is playing the same part. It's questionable on whether or not the film will do well, but it's almost assured that Meryl won't fail.
Grey Gardens; Drew Barrymore - A dark horse, but a very likely-looking bet considering Barrymore's lack of any previous nomination and gigantic potential.
Happy-Go-Lucky; Sally Hawkins - This Brit has already recieved positive buzz from England. Will Oscar go gaga for her like they did for Cotillard? Or will they recieve the film the same way?
Revolutionary Road; Kate Winslet - Poor Kate is still struggling to find the right role to nab that Oscar prize. Hopefully her risks will be fruitful soon.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Dark Knight; Heath Ledger - A posthumous nomination in a blockbuster superhero movie? As unusual as it sounds, the movie world is a-fire with potential buzz for Ledger's creepy Joker. If the category remains uneventful for the rest of the year, Ledger could easily swoop in...and possibly win?
Defiance; Liev Schreiber - The film looks promising, and Schreiber has gone unnoticed for a long time. Perhaps this time he will be.
Doubt; Philip Seymour Hoffman - If he's pushed supporting, the previous winner could land a spot easily.
Frost/Nixon; Michael Sheen - He garned attention in 06 for The Queen, and now he's back in a role he's already famous for. Potential nom? Perhaps.
The Soloist; Robert Downey, Jr. - He's on FIRE with Iron Man and could do just as well with Wright's film in the fall.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Burn After Reading; Frances McDormand - Oscar loves Coens, and they loved her back in 96 when they gave her the win for Fargo. If the film does well, she could easily get a nom.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Taraji P. Henson - Most known for her role in 05's Hustle & Flow, Henson could catch Oscar's eye with what is said to be a baity part.
Doubt; Amy Adams - A previous nominee in 05, Adams could ride her way in with the Doubt train to a spot.
Doubt; Viola Davis - Her role is said to be brief, but the actress who played her on Broadway beat out four other actresses at the Tonys - including the woman who is being portrayed by Adams in the film. Could this actress make a name for herself with the same part?
Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Penelope Cruz - Already getting buzz from Cannes, the previous nominee could sneak in with another nom.

81st Oscars: My First Big 8 Predictions.

Here we go again...hopefully these will be good for a laugh this time next year.

BEST PICTURE
Australia.
Changeling.
**Doubt.**
Revolutionary Road.
Synecdoche, New York.

BEST DIRECTOR
Charlie Kaufman - Synecdoche, New York.
Baz Luhrmann - Australia.
Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road.
Gus Van Sant - Milk.
**John Patrick Shanley - Doubt.**

BEST ACTOR
Benicio del Toro - Guerrila.
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road.
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Synecdoche, New York.
**Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon.**
Sean Penn - Milk.

BEST ACTRESS
Emily Blunt - Sunshine Cleaning.
Angelina Jolie - Changeling.
Nicole Kidman - Australia.
**Meryl Streep - Doubt.**
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Gael García Bernal - Blindness.
**Josh Brolin - Milk.**
Jason Butler Harner - Changeling.
Peter Macdissi - Towelhead.
Michael Sheen - Frost/Nixon.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
**Amy Adams - Doubt.**
Toni Collette - Towelhead.
Viola Davis - Doubt.
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
Samantha Morton - Synecdoche, New York.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Ethan & Joel Coen - Burn After Reading.
Ronald Harwood - Australia.
Megan Holley - Sunshine Cleaning.
**Charlie Kaufman - Synecdoche, New York.**
Andrew Stanton - WALL*E.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
**Alan Ball - Towelhead.**
Justin Haythe - Revolutionary Road.
Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon.
Eric Roth - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
John Patrick Shanley - Doubt.

My Final Predictions.

[Click on the image for a fuller resolution.]

Best Visual Effects

- Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End.
- 300.
- Transformers.

Best Makeup

- Hairspray.
- La Môme. [La Vie en Rose]
- Sweeney Todd.

Best Original Song

- Enchanted, That's How You Know.
- Grace is Gone, Grace is Gone.
- Hairspray, Come So Far (Got so Far to Go).
- Into the Wild, Guaranteed.
- Once, Falling Slowly.

Best Sound Editing

- Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End.
- Ratatouille.
- Spider-Man 3.
- 300.
- Transformers.

Best Sound Mixing

- The Bourne Ultimatum.
- No Country for Old Men.
- Sweeney Todd.
- 300.
- Transformers.

Best Original Score

- Michael Giacchino, Ratatouille.
- Jonny Greenwood, There Will Be Blood.
- Alberto Iglesias, The Kite Runner.
- Dario Marianelli, Atonement.
- Howard Shore, Eastern Promises.

Best Costumes

- Colleen Atwood, Sweeney Todd.
- Alexandra Byrne, Elizabeth: the Golden Age.
- Jacqueline Durran, Atonement.
- Patricia Norris, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
- Rita Ryack, Hairspray.

Best Art Direction.

- Stuart Craig, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.
- Michel Eric & Laurent Ott, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
- Dante Ferretti, Sweeney Todd.
- Jack Fisk, There Will Be Blood.
- Sarah Greenwood, Atonement.

Best Film Editing

- Jay Cassidy, Into the Wild.
- John Gilroy, Michael Clayton.
- "Roderick Jaynes" (Ethan & Joel Coen), No Country for Old Men.
- Chris Lebenzon, Sweeney Todd.
- Dylan Tichenor, There Will Be Blood.

Best Cinematography

- Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
- Roger Deakins, No Country for Old Men.
- Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood.
- Janusz Kaminski, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
- Seamus McGarvey, Atonement.

Best Documentary Film

- Autism: the Musical.
- For the Bible Tells Me So.
- Lake of Fire.
- No End in Sight.
- Sicko.

Best Animated Film

- Persepolis.
- Ratatouille.
- The Simpsons Movie.

Best Foreign Language Film.

- Die Fälscher [The Counterfeiters], Austria.
- L'Âge des ténèbres [Days of Darkness], Canada.
- 12, Russia.
- La Sconosciuta [The Unknown Woman], Italy.
- O Ano em Que Meus Pais Saíram de Férias [The Year My Parents Went on Vacation], Brazil.

Best Adapted Screenplay

- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood.
- Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men.
- Christopher Hampton, Atonement.
- Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
- Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson's War.

Best Original Screenplay

- Brad Bird, Ratatouille.
- Diablo Cody, Juno.
- Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton.
- Tamara Jenkins, The Savages.
- Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl.

Best Supporting Actor

- Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
- Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men.
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War.
- Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild.
- Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton.

Best Supporting Actress

- Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There.
- Catherine Keener, Into the Wild.
- Saoirse Ronan, Atonement.
- Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone.
- Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton.

Best Actor

- George Clooney, Michael Clayton.
- Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood.
- Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd.
- Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl.
- Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises.

Best Actress

- Amy Adams, Enchanted.
- Julie Christie, Away from Her.
- Marion Cotillard, La Môme [La Vie en Rose].
- Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart.
- Ellen Page, Juno.

Best Director

- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood.
- Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd.
- Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men.
- Sean Penn, Into the Wild.
- Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Best Picture

- Atonement.
- Into the Wild.
- Juno.
- No Country for Old Men.
- There Will Be Blood.

The race is heating up.

New Predicted Acting Nominees-

Note: There has been some gray matter in between the ones on the blog and these new ones, but these are the first big "new" predictions I've had since then.


Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis. There Will Be Blood
Why: His precursor wins and GG/BFCA/SAG noms plus rave reviews for the film as a whole have kept Day-Lewis propelled above the others.

Johnny Depp. Sweeney Todd
Why: Great reviews and the BFCA/Globe nod are making him a serious contender.

George Clooney. Michael Clayton
Why: Some precursor wins plus noms in the BFCA/GG/SAG are doing good for him. (Not to mention Wilkinson and Swinton.)

James McAvoy. Atonement
Why: Although he hasn't won any precursors, and didn't recieve a BFCA/SAG nom, he could still ride in through a strong campaign, his Globe nom, and the movie's overall success.

Emilie Hirsch. Into the Wild
Why: Sort of the flip side of McAvoy: almost no precursors and no Globe nom, but still doing good with his SAG and BFCA noms. He might have the "Indie cred" that Gosling had last year, too.

Don't forget...
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson's War)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)
Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl)
Frank Langella (Starting Out in the Evening)



Best Actress

Julie Christie. Away from Her
Why: Many precursor wins and nominations in "the 3" (BFCA/GG/SAG). Not to mention her vet status.

Marion Cotillard. La Vie en Rose
Why: Just as many precursor wins, and nominations in "the 3." The fact that she's foreign might hurt her, but she still stands a great chance.

Ellen Page. Juno
Why: Fantastic reviews and also noms from "the 3." She's definitely the "Indie" nominee of the year, and likely to be one of Hollywood's new starlets.

Amy Adams. Enchanted
Why: Although she missed out on SAG, Adams will definitely get pushed and has the fans on her side. Another starlet in the making.

Keira Knightley. Atonement
Why: In a category where she could've easily fallen out, it seems she could make it back in this year. True, she's only got the GG nom, but she's got star cred and could make it in the end....plus I don't want to admit Jolie could get nominated.

Don't forget...
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeney Todd)
Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Nicole Kidman (Margot at the Wedding)


Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem. No Country for Old Men
Why: Raves, precursor wins, and noms from "the 3." What more do you need?

Casey Affleck. The Assassination of Long Titles
Why: Some precursor wins and noms from "the 3." His appearance in Gone Baby Gone could earn him some extra support.

Philip Seymour Hoffman. Charlie Wilson's War
Why: Missed out on SAG, but his previous winning status + his plethora of film appearances this year will guarantee him a nomination somewhere - namely, here.

Hal Holbrook. Into the Wild
Why: Never nominated, got noms from BFCA and SAG, and has great reviews and the age factor working for him.

Tom Wilkinson. Michael Clayton
Why: A few precursors plus a nomination from every human on the planet...not to mention he's never won before.

Don't forget...
Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
John Travolta (Hairspray)
Russell Crowe (American Gangster)
Philip Bosco (The Savages)
Max von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)


Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett. I'm Not There
Why: Raves, a few precursor wins, "the 3," and her star status will keep her in.

Amy Ryan. Gone Baby Gone
Why: Winning probably the most precursors of the season not to mention nods from "the 3."

Saoirse Ronan. Atonement
Why: Oscar loves the kiddies when they shine in supporting. And SOMEONE from Atonement has to get nominated. Ronan's been winning lots of "Best Female Youth" awards from precursors and also has a Globe nom and BFCA nod.

Tilda Swinton. Michael Clayton
Why: Fairly known, but never nominated; riding the train of MC's glory, she'll score a nom easily after securing one in "the 3."

Vanessa Redgrave. Atonement
Why: S. Actress is really weak this year, and the open spot could easily go to her: she got very positive reviews and a BFCA award to boot.

Don't forget...
Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilson's War)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding)
Jennifer Garner (Juno)
Romola Garai (Atonement)
Catherine Keener (Into the Wild)



That's all for now...but keep checking back for updates!

SAG Nominees.

Dear Briony:

We're very, very, sorry for the terrible distress we, the SAG members, have caused..for such films as "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street", "Charlie Wilson's War", and your own, "Atonement." It's rather unfortunate that screeners weren't sent out to us, so the nominations are not as strong as they have been before. (We had to nominate Cate Blanchett instead of Keira Knightley. I am so, so, terribly sorry.)

I hope this won't ruin your chances at Oscar glory, but what more can you do?

Oh, and Cunt.

-SAG.





The Nominees

Best Ensemble

3:10 to Yuma
American Gangster
Hairspray
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men.


Best Actor, Leading

George Clooney. (Michael Clayton)
Daniel Day-Lewis. (There Will Be Blood)
Ryan Gosling. (Lars and the Real Girl)
Emile Hirsch. (Into the Wild)
Viggo Mortensen. (Eastern Promises)


Best Actress, Leading

Cate Blanchett. (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Julie Christie. (Away from Her)
Marion Cotillard. (La Vie en Rose)
Angelina Jolie. (A Mighty Heart)
Ellen Page. (Juno)


Best Actor, Supporting

Casey Affleck. (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
Javier Bardem. (No Country for Old Men)
Hal Holbrook. (Into the Wild)
Tommy Lee Jones. (No Country for Old Men)
Tom Wilkinson. (Michael Clayton)


Best Actress, Supporting

Cate Blanchett. (I'm Not There)
Ruby Dee. (American Gangster)
Catherine Keener. (Into the Wild)
Amy Ryan. (Gone Baby Gone)
Tilda Swinton. (Michael Clayton)

Best Supporting Actor predictions - 11/17/07

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1. JAVIER BARDEM - No Country for Old Men
Nominated: once for "Before Nights Falls"
Why he could: Amazing reviews, great role, noticable film...easily a shoo-in.
Why he couldn't: I honestly can't think of him not getting nominated. He is supposed to shine in the film, and don't see how he couldn't. The first sure-fire lock of the year!

2. PHILIP BOSCO - The Savages
Nominated: never
Why he could: Baity role, older actor with no noms...you do the math.
Why he couldn't: Could go unnoticed, or be overshadowed by leads Hoffman and Linney.

3. PAUL DANO - There Will Be Blood
Nominated: never
Why he could: After being noted in Little Miss Sunshine, Dano's bigger role looks baity and exactly like the type of newcomer performance Oscar loves.
Why he couldn't: TWBB might be too unconvential for Oscars, and Dano's performance might fall under the same category.

4. CASEY AFFLECK - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Nominated: never
Why he could: Very positive reviews for the film and his performance, not to mention its Volpi Cup win.
Why he couldn't: Could easily be overshadowed by a more "vet" actor. (See #6 and #7)

5. ALBERT FINNEY - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Nominated: five times, never won
Why he could: Vet actor + notablely good film + no wins yet = something's cookin.
Why he couldn't: Hawke's supporting performance or another one altogether could get thrown in the pot.

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6. PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: once, and won for it. (Capote)
Why he couldn't: If the film doesn't do too well, his chances are gone.
Why he could: Still fresh in Oscar's mind, his performance might be thrown in - and they might want to award him for something if he misses out on The Savages.

7. TOM WILKINSON - Michael Clayton
Nominated: once for "In the Bedroom"
Why he couldn't: The film's lukewarm response might get him unnoticed on the radar.
Why he could: In the same position as co-star Clooney: if some other contenders fall flat, he could easily swoop in.

8. HAL HOLBROOK - Into the Wild
Nominated: never
Why he couldn't: A small part that is overshadowed by Hirsch's buzz.
Why he could: He's in the position where he is old enough to get in just by age - and he's pretty famous for his Mark Twain shows, so wouldn't it be great if he could add an Oscar nom to his resume?

9. JOHN TRAVOLTA - Hairspray
Nominated: twice for Saturday Night Fever and Pulp Fiction.
Why he couldn't: A role that suffers from category placement confusion and might get overlooked for more dramatic roles.
Why he could: He got really good reviews and was definitely put in a light he's never been seen in before. If Oscar is desperate for comedic relief, he could get in.

10. RUSSELL CROWE - American Gangster
Nominated: thrice, and won for "Gladiator."
Why he couldn't: The film's reception is still befuddling, and since he's second-wing to
Washington, his chances are down.
Why he could: He could always pull out a parasitic nomination since he hasn't gotten one now for 6 years.

Best Actor predictions - 11/11/07

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1. DANIEL DAY-LEWIS - There Will Be Blood
Nominated: thrice, won in '89 for "My Left Foot"
Why he could: Great reviews and fantastic buzz for an Oscar fav.
Why he couldn't: It's always possible he could be snubbed...although Oscar likes DDL, they might not like PTA.

2. JAMES McAVOY - Atonement
Nominated: never
Why he could: Once again, great reviews and buzz. Plus, he's supposed to be the standout.
Why he couldn't: His fairly unknown status might work against him.

3. DENZEL WASHINGTON - American Gangster
Nominated: five times, won twice for "Glory" and "Training Day"
Why he could: The standout of the film, and great reviews.
Why he couldn't: The film's response wasn't as widely accepted as originally thought, and he could be overlooked.

4. EMILIE HIRSCH - Into the Wild
Nominated: never
Why he could: Very positive reviews for the film and his performance.
Why he couldn't: He may get overlooked or replaced by a bigger name/movie.

5. JOHNNY DEPP - Sweeney Todd
Nominated: twice, never won
Why he could: Early buzz for a clearly baity and previously known (and praised) role.
Why he couldn't: Definitely could be too bizzare for Oscar's taste.

*_*_*_*_*_*

6. PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN - The Savages
Nominated: once, and won for it. (Capote)
Why he couldn't: Could be overlooked by costars Linney and Bosco.
Why he could: Still fresh in Oscar's mind, his performance might be thrown in for comedic relief.

7. GEORGE CLOONEY - Michael Clayton
Nominated: thrice, but once for acting. He won the award for "Syriana."
Why he couldn't: Reviews and buzz not outstanding enough to push him all the way.
Why he could: If some other contenders fall flat, he could easily swoop in.

8. VIGGO MORTENSON - Eastern Promises
Nominated: never
Why he couldn't: Early release date and a film that is probably not for Oscar. (They did, after all, overlook AHOV.)
Why he could: The reviews have been overwhelmingly good, and he could get in with a campaign push.

9. TOMMY LEE JONES - No Country for Old Men
Nominated: twice, won for "The Fugitive"
Why he couldn't: Not enough buzz, and easily overshadowed by costar Bardem.
Why he could: If the category becomes pitiful, his vet. status may help him along with the "parasitic move." (Film with an easy shot at one category gets another nomination in a category you might not expect...See Djimon Hounsou for Blood Diamond, Frances McDormand for North Country, etc.)

10. TOM HANKS - Charlie Wilson's War
Nominated: 5 times, won twice for "Philadelphia" and "Forrest Gump."
Why he couldn't: His recent box office slump might bite him in the butt, along with how uncertain the film's future seems.
Why he could: If he pulls out a really good performance, a proper campaign and his vet status could get him in.