Movie Geek's Guide to Predicting and Celebrating Film's Biggest Night of the Year.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

New predictions, from July 22nd.

BEST PICTURE

Australia. -
Oscar loved Baz for 01's Moulin Rouge!...perhaps dreamy glamor will pull through again.
Burn After Reading. -
After No Country's BP win last year, it's evident that Oscar is on a Coen Bros. high. With a surprising lack of comedic BP competitors, this could easily make its way in.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. -
Fincher hasn't been appreciated lately, but the story combined with powerhouse names like Pitt and Blanchett along with the stunning visuals (did you see the trailer?) makes this the one to keep an eye on come winter.
Doubt. -
The Tonys loved the play, and with two previous Oscar winners headlining and the play's original director/writer still doing his thing, this could do just as good at the Oscars.
Frost/Nixon. -
Another Tony winner with returning members - this time, Langella and Sheen both return to the roles they played on Broadway. With an Oscar winner directing, could this one pull through?


BEST DIRECTOR

Burn After Reading
; Ethan & Joel Coen -
Last year's winner(s) could very well make it here again if the film does well.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; David Fincher - This well known name has never been nominated, but if he ever stood a chance at getting nominated, now would certainly be the time.
Doubt; John Patrick Shanley - If the film is as good as it's supposed to be, he could easily get in.
Frost/Nixon; Ron Howard - The previous winner could return after a long absence from the nomination ballot.
Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Woody Allen - He hasn't been nominated for Best Director since 1994, and Cannes certainly made a big deal out of this picture...perhaps he could fill in the famous "5th spot."


BEST ACTOR

Che; Benicio del Toro - His film didn't get very good reviews at Cannes, but the previous Oscar winner certainly got good praise.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Brad Pitt - He's only been nominated once before, and if his film does well he might land a spot.
Frost/Nixon; Frank Langella - Veteran actor, never been nominated, and he won the Tony for this exact role. Sounds good to me!
Milk; Sean Penn - Seanny boy has made nary a splash since his win in '03... perhaps playing a gay political figure in van Sant's next film could garner him another nom?
W.; Josh Brolin - With a surprising lack of comedic nominees, Brolin could get his first nomination if the film is well recieved and he lives up to its name.


BEST ACTRESS

Australia; Nicole Kidman - After a series of flops and a brief, albeit unnoticed revival with last year's Margot at the Wedding, Kidman could fly back into Oscar's grasp once again.
Doubt; Meryl Streep - Cherry Jones was a shoo-in to win the Tony for this role, and now Hollywood's most respected actress is playing the same part. It's questionable on whether or not the film will do well, but it's almost assured that Meryl won't fail.
Grey Gardens; Drew Barrymore - A dark horse, but a very likely-looking bet considering Barrymore's lack of any previous nomination and gigantic potential.
Happy-Go-Lucky; Sally Hawkins - This Brit has already recieved positive buzz from England. Will Oscar go gaga for her like they did for Cotillard? Or will they recieve the film the same way?
Revolutionary Road; Kate Winslet - Poor Kate is still struggling to find the right role to nab that Oscar prize. Hopefully her risks will be fruitful soon.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Dark Knight; Heath Ledger - A posthumous nomination in a blockbuster superhero movie? As unusual as it sounds, the movie world is a-fire with potential buzz for Ledger's creepy Joker. If the category remains uneventful for the rest of the year, Ledger could easily swoop in...and possibly win?
Defiance; Liev Schreiber - The film looks promising, and Schreiber has gone unnoticed for a long time. Perhaps this time he will be.
Doubt; Philip Seymour Hoffman - If he's pushed supporting, the previous winner could land a spot easily.
Frost/Nixon; Michael Sheen - He garned attention in 06 for The Queen, and now he's back in a role he's already famous for. Potential nom? Perhaps.
The Soloist; Robert Downey, Jr. - He's on FIRE with Iron Man and could do just as well with Wright's film in the fall.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Burn After Reading; Frances McDormand - Oscar loves Coens, and they loved her back in 96 when they gave her the win for Fargo. If the film does well, she could easily get a nom.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Taraji P. Henson - Most known for her role in 05's Hustle & Flow, Henson could catch Oscar's eye with what is said to be a baity part.
Doubt; Amy Adams - A previous nominee in 05, Adams could ride her way in with the Doubt train to a spot.
Doubt
; Viola Davis - Her role is said to be brief, but the actress who played her on Broadway beat out four other actresses at the Tonys - including the woman who is being portrayed by Adams in the film. Could this actress make a name for herself with the same part?
Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Penelope Cruz - Already getting buzz from Cannes, the previous nominee could sneak in with another nom.