Best Actor in a Leading Role.
Looking Safe...are Sean Penn's turn as openly gay politician, the titular Harvey, in Gus Van Sant's Milk. Despite Penn's previous win (in 2003 for Mystic River), the amount of praise, critics awards and the ever-important Globe nomination have lead other critics to say that this could possibly be his best performance to date. But could this warrant him another Oscar? Also sitting pretty is acting veteran Frank Langella, reprising his Tony-award portrayal as Richard Nixon in the drama Frost/Nixon, and Mickey Rourke, whose career is not unlike his role in Darren Aronofsky's The Wrestler, where a down-and-out professional makes the effort to re-glorify his name.
On the Fence: There are four big contenders for the remaining two spots. They are, alphabetically: Leonardo DiCaprio as a struggling father in Revolutionary Road, Clint Eastwood as a cantankerous, yet courageous neighbor in his own Gran Torino, Richard Jenkins as a professor who fights for the rights of his illegal alien friends in the quiet The Visitor, and Brad Pitt, whose career could easily bounce back into awards territory with David Fincher's sweeping drama The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, about a man who ages backwards. So, who's in and who's out? At this point, any of these four men could easily be interchanged into a suitable looking lineup for 2008- but, at the moment, it looks like DiCaprio could score a nomination for his harrowing performance, and previously unnominated Jenkins could garner enough fan support over Pitt and Eastwood to take the last spot.
Longshots: Their outlook is not so good right now, but who knows what could happen? Josh Brolin for W., Benicio del Toro for Che, Hugh Jackman for Australia, Dustin Hoffman for Last Chance Harvey, and Will Smith for Seven Pounds.
Best Actress in a Leading Role.
Looking Safe...is really only one person for sure, and that is Mrs. 14 Nominations Herself, Meryl Streep for her role as Sister Aloysius in Doubt. Although she is the only lock, there are several other strong contenders that are so close to being in that they could be considered safe at this point, namely Kate Winslet for her role as an unsatisfied housewife in Revolutionary Road, Anne Hathaway as the kindling to her family's dysfunction in Rachel Getting Married, and Sally Hawkins as perky Poppy in the British comedy Happy-Go-Lucky.
On the Fence: With these four women sitting pretty tight, that leaves only one open space for three main competitors: Cate Blanchett as a lover tormented by time in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Angelina Jolie as a misunderstood mother of a missing child in Changeling, and Kristin Scott Thomas as an ex-convict in the French-language film I've Loved You So Long. All three of these women have previously been nominated before, and have their strengths and weaknesses. Blanchett is loved by the Academy, but her role may not be as easily showcased as her costar Pitt's part is. Jolie received lots of her praise for her work, but her recent commercial lifestyle may put off some voters, or maybe or role will be forgotten altogether because of its early October release. Thomas has been winning critical acclaim and is surely boosted by Marion Cotillard's win last year in a French-language film...but this may also end up hurting her, if voters are too unwilling to read subtitles and watch a movie at the same time. So, which lady could make her way in? The position has constantly been fluctuating throughout the year, but at the moment it looks like Button's success and Blanchett's star power could get her nomination number 6 this year.
Longshots: Just outside this band of seven, Melissa Leo has been quietly watching the action and sitting back. Scattered critical praise and an ISA nomination for her indie film Frozen River have put her on the map, for sure...but she's so unknown and the film made such a little splash, and such a long time ago, that she is easily the season's dark horse. Also worthy of noting: Kate Beckinsale for Nothing But the Truth, Nicole Kidman for Australia, Emma Thompson for Last Chance Harvey, and Michelle Williams for Wendy and Lucy.
Best Supporting Actor.
Looking Safe... are two men: the Joker himself, Heath Ledger, for his ground-breaking performance in the equally ground-breaking film The Dark Knight, and Philip Seymour Hoffman as the guilty(?) Father Flynn in Doubt. However, past these two men, there is some speculation as to who could get in.
On the Fence: Here we have a whopping six performances that are stirring around in the considerably weak Supporting Actor stew. They are, in alphabetical order: Josh Brolin as a guilty assassin in Milk, Robert Downey, Jr. in a deadpanned comedic role as an actor undergoing blackface for his next film in Tropic Thunder, and Ralph Fiennes, who actually has two roles that could win him acclaim: his Golden-Globe nominated performance in The Duchess, or his co-starring role as a man haunted by his past in the drama The Reader. We've also got James Franco as a politician's lover in the biopic Milk, Dev Patel as a young boy desperate to find his true love in Slumdog Millionaire, and Michael Shannon as the intuitive real estate agent with speculations in Revolutionary Road. Now, these seven performances could all easily be slotted into the remaining three spots, but which three will prevail above the others? Although he didn't receive a Golden Globe nomination, Brolin's work in Milk (controversial role, previously unnominated even after No Country for Old Men's success last year, and also riding on his performance for W. that will undoubtedly go unnoticed) makes him easily the most likely to get a nomination out of the bunch. Early reviews have also had positive buzz for Shannon's role, especially with his work in a reportedly pivotal scene. So, if these two men have spots, who else could get in? When it gets down to the nitty-gritty, I think Downey, Jr. and Patel will be duking it out for the last spot. And even though Downey, Jr. has had more of the precursor love, I think that the conservative Academy would rather reward a previously unknown and unnominated Indian boy in a BP darling than nominate a somewhat controversial comedic performance alongside Ledger's already unorthodox Joker- but, who knows? Maybe Downey could pull it off after all.
Longshots: Let's not forget some of the men with fading possibilities, but still possibilities nonetheless: Tom Cruise for Tropic Thunder (Golden Globe nominee), Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky, and Liev Schrieber for Defiance.
Best Supporting Actress.
Looking Safe... for now, we have two locks for sure: Penelope Cruz's turn as sexy Maria in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and Viola Davis as the heart-wrenching Mrs. Muller in the adaptation of the stage play Doubt. Also looking safe, although not quite a lock just yet, is Kate Winslet for her role as a disturbed Holocaust guard in Stephen Daldry's The Reader.
On the Fence: Four women seem to be eying those last two spots: Amy Adams as the quiet Sister James in Doubt, Rosemarie DeWitt as frustrated sister Rachel in Rachel Getting Married, Taraji P. Henson as caring "mother" Queenie in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Marisa Tomei as lonely stripper Cassidy in The Wrestler. Adams and Tomei can play the "previous nominee" card, even in the same category; yet I think the other two women have the fleshier roles that Oscar loves to nominate, along with costars who also stand a chance of being nominated. So, Henson and Dewitt look like they are in this spot for now.
Longshots: This race is still wide open, so keep an eye out for these potential dark horses: Hiam Abbass for The Visitor, Kathy Bates for Revolutionary Road, Vera Farmiga for Nothing But the Truth, Samantha Morton for Synecdoche, New York, Tilda Swinton for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Debra Winger for Rachel Getting Married, or Elsa Zylberstein for I've Loved You So Long.
Predicted Lineups (with Best Picture and Best Director)
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio- Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins- The Visitor
Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn- Milk
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins- Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep- Doubt
Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin- Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
Dev Patel- Slumdog Millionaire
Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz- Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis- Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt- Rachel Getting Married
Taraji P. Henson- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet- The Reader
Best Director
Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes- Revolutionary Road
Christopher Nolan- The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant- Milk
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
